Forecast of Vietnam’s Fruit and Vegetable Exports in 2024 and Potential by 2030

2024:

Export revenue is expected to exceed $7 billion, with exports to China estimated at $4.5-5 billion. In the first nine months of 2024, export revenue reached nearly $5.7 billion, up 34% compared to the same period last year, equaling the entire year of 2023. Durian is the main product, valued at $2.5 billion. Other fruits like dragon fruit, bananas, jackfruit, and mangoes also saw significant growth.

Export Markets:

Among the top 10 largest import markets for Vietnamese fruits and vegetables, China leads with a revenue of $3.4 billion in the first nine months of 2024, up 36% year-on-year. Following are the United States, South Korea, and Thailand, with import growth rates ranging from 35-90%. However, exports to the Netherlands showed signs of stagnation.

Potential by 2030:

Experts predict that Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable export revenue could reach $15 billion by 2030, with the Chinese market alone contributing about $10 billion. Expanding the list of fruits officially exported to China and developing processed products like frozen and dried durian will drive this growth.

Challenges and Opportunities:

Despite strong export growth, Vietnam faces competition from China, which is developing key Vietnamese fruits like dragon fruit and durian. The area of dragon fruit cultivation in China has surpassed Vietnam after 10 years, and China is also experimenting with growing 2,700 hectares of durian on Hainan Island.

Quality and Sustainable Exports:

Mr. Nguyễn Quang Hiếu, Deputy Director of the Plant Protection Department, emphasized that Vietnam needs to address issues of uneven quality and unstable production to meet the demands of major importers. Official commercial exports are key to sustainable development and increasing export value. Quality, distinctive flavor, and food safety will help Vietnam build trust and loyalty from consumers in major markets like China.

Export Target 2030:

To achieve the export target of $15 billion by 2030, Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable industry needs to continue improving quality, expanding markets, and focusing on the core values of the products. Enhancing product quality will help Vietnamese fruits strengthen their position in demanding markets and develop sustainably in the long term.